On track for most Irish Academy awards for years

Put more flags. We’re still on track for the most Irish Oscars ever since the infamous annus mirabilis of 2016 when, thanks to Brooklyn and Room, the Irish Film Board (as it still was then) got more nominations than Paramount and Universal Studios combined.

The juggernaut here is, of course, Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast. Coming to the Telluride Festival in September with modest fanfare, the sentimental monochrome drama was, after that premiere, immediately anointed as an Oscar contender. Clayton Davis in Variety described it as “the first movie I’ve seen this year that can be a Best Picture winner”.

The film did well in the following awards season and can expect several mentions when the Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday.

There is, however, a sense that some momentum has been lost. Belfast fell short of scoring some key nominations – including best director – when Bafta announced it last week, but, as these shortlists are now largely chosen by a select jury, we can’t read too much. . Branagh’s inclusion among the five names nominated by the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) for Best Feature Keeps him at the top of the grid. If it receives Oscar nominations for both director and picture (as a producer), it will break the current record for nominations in most categories over a career. The title, with six, is currently shared by Walt Disney, Alfonso Cuarón and George Clooney.

Early hopes that three or more actors from Belfast will receive nominations are fading. Nominated for the Bafta, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), British Independent Film Awards, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, Caitríona Balfe seems confident in Best Supporting Actress.

Ciarán Hinds, at Bafta, the Globes and Critics Choice, should pretty much sneak in for Best Supporting Actor. But neither Jamie Dornan nor Judi Dench seem to have the legs.

Meanwhile, Ruth Negga, debuting a year ago at Rebecca Hall’s Passing premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, has quietly racked up award nominations and wins with critics groups. She was considered to be “on the bubble” for a nomination for Best Supporting Actress, but the goodwill seems enough to see her safe.

Negga may well be the only former Oscar nominee in a competitive race. A Bafta nomination gives Jessie Buckley, so strong in The Last Daughter, a psychological boost in the same category, but it looks like an Oscar nod may be out of reach. His time will come.

The current race feels a bit more like an average Oscar hooley than last year’s weird and deep Covid competition. The box office matters again. But how much? One of the things that’s holding Belfast back is its low revenue in the US (although it has done well in Ireland and the UK). This movie, however, was never to be a hit.

West Side Story’s most egregious failure – a hugely-budgeted, ecstatically reviewed Steven Spielberg’s entertainment – ​​has sparked more and more heated debate. The musical is still expected to score plenty of nominations, but that financial shadow can be significant at the awards themselves.

Meanwhile, Netflix, which has yet to win Best Picture, is making its own rules. Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up and Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog – the first critically divisive, the second acclaimed everywhere – look set to score big on nominations day.

We think Don’t Look Up was watched by millions and Power of the Dog had respectable home viewing. But who knows for sure?

We offer predictions in the main races. Applicants are ranked in descending order of likely inclusion. Technical nominations should bring Denis Villeneuve’s Dune to the top of the charts with around 10 or 11.

2022 OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTION

Best Picture

The power of the dog
Belfast
West Side Story
From a first part
King Richard
Don’t look up
CODA
Licorice Pizza
Macbeth tragedy
Tick, tick… Boom!
Be the Ricardos

For the first time since 2011, there are 10 guaranteed nominees. The first seven above seem nailed. Then it gets murky. Other suitors: Drive My Car, House of Gucci.

Best Director

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Paul Thomas Anderson (licorice pizza)

These are the five DGA appointments. But Branagh and Anderson are vulnerable. Other contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up).

Best actor

Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, tick… Boom!)
Denzel Washington (Tragedy of Macbeth)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)

Four near certainties and a place that could go anywhere. Other contenders: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Nicolas Cage (Pig), Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon, C’mon)

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Girl)
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
Jessica Chastain (Tammy Faye’s Eyes)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

We say Stewart is poised to hang on after this long post-Venice slide. Ignore this pleasantly quirky Bafta list. Anyone must win. Other suitors: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza).

Best Supporting Actor

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci)
Bradley Cooper (licorice pizza)

Strange collection this year. Not as competitive as the Best Supporting Actress race. Other contenders: Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Jesse Plemons (Power of the Dog)

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (pass)

Potentially five very strong candidates. But probably between Dunst and DeBose. Other contenders: Marlee Matlin (CODA), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter).

Best Original Screenplay

Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Don’t look up
King Richard
Be the Ricardos

Four infallible nominees for best picture and a slightly less certain place. Other contenders: Parallel Mothers, Mass, C’mon, C’mon.

Best Fit Scenario

The power of the dog
West side store
The lost girl
drive my car
Dunes

Table very difficult to predict. Power of the Dog should take the win. Other contenders: The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, Passing.

Best Animated Film

Encanto
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the last dragon
To flee
Lucas

Could Flee become the first film to land Best Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Feature? He will surely miss at least one race. Other contenders: Belle, Sing 2.

Best Documentary Feature

soul summer
To flee
The rescue
Procession
Ascent

Summer of Soul has thrilled crowds all year round. But Flee and The Rescue have fans. Other contenders: Attica, Julia, The First Wave.

Best International Film

drive my car
A hero
The worst person in the world
God’s hand
Compartment no. 6

We bet that’s where Flee stumbles. Drive My Car looks almost unbeatable and could feature elsewhere. Other suitors: Run away, I’m your man, A yak in the classroom.